Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Second-Order Blindness
Judging an action by its immediate effect and missing the effects of the effects; complex systems punish this, and decision-makers in simulations reliably ignore delays and side effects.
An everyday example
Cutting support staff to save cost and losing the renewals that funded the company.
What it can cost you
First-order wins that are second-order losses; sellers who show step one.
Warning signs
- I only thought one step ahead.
- The immediate benefit is the whole case.
One thing to do
For any decision, write 'and then what?' three times before committing.
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