Availability Heuristic
Judging how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind; vivid, recent and repeated events feel common, quiet ones feel rare, and whoever controls what you see controls the estimate.
An everyday example
Fearing a data breach after a week of headlines while ignoring the unpatched server that is the actual risk.
What it can cost you
Risk estimates set by media diet and by the last thing a persuader showed you.
Warning signs
- I can think of examples, so it seems likely.
- The examples all came from the same source.
One thing to do
Ask for the base rate before trusting the feeling of frequency; if you cannot find the number, treat your estimate as noise.
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