Hindsight Bias
Once you know how it turned out, it seems it was always going to; you misremember your own uncertainty and judge past decisions by present knowledge.
An everyday example
'Everyone could see that market was going to collapse' — said by people who invested in it.
What it can cost you
Unfair judgment of past decisions, your own and others'; overconfidence about the next one because the last one now looks obvious.
Warning signs
- I knew it all along.
- I cannot remember being uncertain.
One thing to do
Write your predictions and their probabilities down before outcomes; review the record, not your memory.
Is this happening to you right now?
Describe your situation and get a read across all six brains. No account needed.
Check my situationRelated
Not medical, legal or financial advice. How Decision IQ works
One decision idea a week
One useful idea. No daily drip, no pressure.