Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Projection Bias
Predicting your future tastes and states from your current ones; the hungry shopper over-buys, the excited buyer over-commits, the calm signer under-insures.
An everyday example
Signing a two-year gym contract in January's enthusiasm.
What it can cost you
Commitments made by a self in a temporary state on behalf of a self who will not share it.
Warning signs
- I am deciding for a year in a moment.
- My current mood is doing the forecasting.
One thing to do
Ask how the opposite state would decide; if the answer differs, choose the shorter or reversible commitment.
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