Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Planning Fallacy
Under-estimating time, cost and risk for your own plans while knowing that similar plans overran; the fix is the outside view, using the record of similar projects as the forecast.
An everyday example
A migration scoped at six weeks that takes six months, like the last three migrations.
What it can cost you
Commitments built on optimistic plans; vendors who quote the inside view.
Warning signs
- This time will be faster.
- I have not looked at the last three.
One thing to do
Forecast from the reference class: how long did comparable projects take, and why would this one differ?
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