Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Pessimism Bias
Under low mood, fatigue or after a loss, people over-weight negative outcomes and under-weight their own agency; the same option looks worse on a bad day, and persuaders who want a no wait for one.
An everyday example
Rejecting a sound opportunity the week after a failed project.
What it can cost you
Decisions coloured by state; being pitched fear when you are already down.
Warning signs
- I said no to everything lately.
- The option looks worse than it did last month with the same facts.
One thing to do
Date your judgments: if the pessimism started before the evidence, defer the decision until the state passes.
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