Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Overconfidence Effect
Over-estimating what you know, how you rank, and how precise your estimates are; the three are distinct, and overprecision — ranges too narrow — is the one that rarely gets corrected.
An everyday example
Ninety-percent confidence intervals that contain the truth forty percent of the time.
What it can cost you
Betting on precision you do not have; trusting confident people over calibrated ones.
Warning signs
- My ranges are tight and often wrong.
- I trust the most confident voice in the room.
One thing to do
Widen every range until you would be genuinely surprised to be outside it; track your calibration.
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