Rational brain · Framing & Choice Architecture
Outcome-Driven Reframing
Judging a decision by how it turned out rather than by what was known when it was made; good luck gets promoted and good process gets fired.
An everyday example
Praising the executive whose reckless bet paid off and blaming the one whose sound bet did not.
What it can cost you
Learning the wrong lessons; rewarding gamblers; being persuaded by someone's lucky track record.
Warning signs
- I am impressed by the result, not the reasoning.
- The winner's process would have looked reckless in advance.
One thing to do
Evaluate decisions on the information available at the time and the process used; keep a decision journal to make that possible.
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