Anchoring & Adjustment
The first number in view pulls every later estimate toward it, even when it is arbitrary; among the most replicated effects in psychology, and the reason opening offers, list prices and 'was' prices exist.
An everyday example
A salary negotiation that never escapes the first figure mentioned, whoever mentioned it.
What it can cost you
Estimating from someone else's starting point; adjusting too little from a number that had no business being there.
Warning signs
- I am adjusting from their figure.
- I cannot remember what I thought it was worth before.
One thing to do
Write your own number before you see theirs; when anchored, generate reasons the anchor is wrong before adjusting.
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