Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Outcome Bias
Rating a decision by its result rather than by the quality of the reasoning and information at the time; good outcomes launder bad decisions, and bad luck condemns good ones.
An everyday example
A fund manager praised for a leveraged bet that happened to pay.
What it can cost you
Learning to gamble from winners and to avoid sound risks from losers; trusting track records without seeing the process.
Warning signs
- I trust them because it worked.
- The reasoning would have looked bad before the result.
One thing to do
Grade decisions on process and available information; keep the outcome in a separate column.
Is this happening to you right now?
Describe your situation and get a read across all six brains. No account needed.
Check my situationRelated
Not medical, legal or financial advice. How Decision IQ works
One decision idea a week
One useful idea. No daily drip, no pressure.