Reptilian brain ยท Loss, Risk & Scarcity

Normalcy Bias

Assuming things will continue as they always have; warnings about unprecedented events are discounted because nothing like them has happened to you.

An everyday example

Keeping all cash in one bank because banks 'do not fail'.

What it can cost you

Under-preparing for tail events; over-trusting whoever says 'this is normal'.

Warning signs

  • I dismissed a warning because it is unprecedented.
  • My exposure is concentrated and I feel fine about it.

One thing to do

For any concentrated exposure, write what happens if the unthinkable occurs and what it would cost to hedge.

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