Neglect of Probability
For emotionally charged outcomes, people respond to the possibility, not the probability: a 1% chance of something dreadful feels much like a 50% chance, and sellers of protection know it.
An everyday example
Paying heavily to insure against a vivid, rare risk while ignoring a dull, likely one.
What it can cost you
Spending on possibility rather than expected loss; fear appeals that skip the odds.
Warning signs
- I cannot stop picturing it.
- Nobody has mentioned how likely it is.
One thing to do
Write the probability next to every feared outcome and multiply by the cost; decide on the product, not the image.
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