Illusory Correlation
Perceiving a relationship between two things that are not related, because the pairing is expected or memorable; clinicians saw it in test drawings that contained no signal, and executives see it in dashboards.
An everyday example
'Our best customers all came from that channel' — which is also the channel you looked at most.
What it can cost you
Strategies built on relationships that do not exist; stereotypes about segments.
Warning signs
- I only counted the cases that fit.
- The link is what I expected to see.
One thing to do
Fill in the whole table: count the cases in all four cells before believing any two things are linked.
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