Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Illusion of Control
Believing you influence outcomes that are chance — choosing your own lottery numbers, timing the market, 'reading' a counterpart — and paying for the feeling.
An everyday example
Trading more actively because the last trade worked; valuing the plan you built over an equal plan you were given.
What it can cost you
Over-trading, over-managing and over-paying for participation in chance.
Warning signs
- I feel in control of an outcome I do not control.
- Involvement makes me confident.
One thing to do
Separate skill from luck domains explicitly; in luck domains, choose the cheapest option and stop steering.
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