Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Gambler's Fallacy
Believing independent random events are 'due' — a loss after wins, a win after losses — or that streaks must continue; professionals show it in asylum courts, loan desks and umpiring.
An everyday example
Rejecting the fourth good candidate in a row because 'they can't all be good'.
What it can cost you
Decisions shaped by the sequence rather than the case; sellers who frame 'due' outcomes.
Warning signs
- I am reacting to the run, not the case.
- 'It's due' is in my head.
One thing to do
Ask whether the events are independent; if they are, the history tells you nothing about the next one.
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