Rational brain · Framing & Choice Architecture
Counterfactual Framing
Judging an outcome against an imagined alternative — 'it would have been far worse without us' — where the alternative is chosen by the person being judged.
An everyday example
A consultant defending a bad year with a worse hypothetical year.
What it can cost you
Accepting an unfalsifiable comparison as evidence of value.
Warning signs
- The comparison is to something that never happened.
- They chose the alternative.
One thing to do
Ask for the counterfactual to be specified before the outcome, or benchmark against real comparable cases instead of imagined ones.
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