Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science
Congruence Bias
Testing a hypothesis only with tests that would confirm it, never with tests that could distinguish it from alternatives; a due-diligence process that asks only 'does this fit?' will always fit.
An everyday example
Checking three references the vendor supplied, all of whom confirm the vendor.
What it can cost you
Confirmation dressed as investigation.
Warning signs
- My checks could not have failed.
- The references were chosen by the subject.
One thing to do
For every hypothesis, design one test that would come out differently if a rival hypothesis were true; run that test.
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