Rational brain · Judgment & Decision Science

Availability Cascade

A belief becomes plausible because it is repeated, and gets repeated because it is plausible; media, social feeds and sales narratives run the loop until a claim feels like common knowledge.

An everyday example

'Everyone knows' a competitor is failing, traceable to one article amplified a thousand times.

What it can cost you

Treating repetition as evidence; being on the wrong end of a cascade about your own product.

Warning signs

  • I believe it because I keep hearing it.
  • I cannot find the original.

One thing to do

Trace the claim to its original source and count the independent sources; ten repetitions of one source are one source.

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