Reptilian brain · Loss, Risk & Scarcity
Ambiguity Aversion
Preferring known risks to unknown ones even at a cost; people pay to replace 'we don't know' with a number, and sellers sell the number.
An everyday example
Choosing the vendor with a confident but unverified forecast over the one who honestly says 'it depends'.
What it can cost you
Punishing honesty and rewarding false precision.
Warning signs
- I trust the one who sounds sure.
- 'It depends' annoyed me.
One thing to do
Treat stated uncertainty as a credibility signal, and ask the confident party how they know.
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