Inductive Reasoning
Generalising from observed cases to a rule; all practical knowledge rests on it and none of it is certain — the number, representativeness and selection of the cases decide how much weight the rule deserves.
An everyday example
'Our last four launches in this segment succeeded, so this one will' — four cases, all in a boom market.
What it can cost you
Over-generalising from few, cherry-picked or non-random cases; sellers who present the cases that fit.
Warning signs
- The examples all point one way.
- Nobody has looked for the counter-example.
One thing to do
Ask how the cases were selected and how many there are; look actively for the cases that would break the rule.
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