Rational brain · Logic, Epistemics & Argument

Formal Fallacy: Affirming the Consequent

'If A then B; B; therefore A.' The outcome occurred, so the claimed cause must have — the logic behind most testimonials, most post-mortems and most 'it worked for them'.

An everyday example

'Companies that use our platform grow fast; you want to grow fast; so use our platform' — growing companies may buy platforms, not the reverse.

What it can cost you

Inferring causes from outcomes; attributing success to whatever the seller sells.

Warning signs

  • The proof is that the outcome happened.
  • Success stories are the only evidence.

One thing to do

Ask what else produces B; if several things do, B tells you little about A.

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