Epistemological Humility
Knowing the limits of what you know and holding beliefs at the confidence the evidence warrants; the best forecasters are not the most knowledgeable but the most calibrated and the quickest to update.
An everyday example
A founder who states each strategic belief with a probability and revisits the list quarterly.
What it can cost you
Confident wrongness; also performative humility that never commits.
Warning signs
- I cannot remember the last time I was wrong.
- My beliefs have no numbers on them.
One thing to do
Attach a confidence to important beliefs, track your calibration, and pre-commit to what would change your mind.
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