Cynefin Framework
Decision contexts differ in kind — clear, complicated, complex, chaotic — and each needs its own mode: apply best practice, consult experts, probe and learn, or act to stabilise. Most bad decisions use the wrong mode.
An everyday example
Running a detailed analysis (complicated mode) on a new market whose dynamics can only be discovered by small experiments (complex mode).
What it can cost you
Expert analysis where experiment was needed; experiment where the answer was known; deliberation during a crisis.
Warning signs
- We are analysing what can only be tested.
- We are testing what is already known.
One thing to do
Before deciding, name the domain: is cause and effect known, knowable, only visible in hindsight, or absent? Choose the mode to match.
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