Abductive Reasoning
Inference to the best explanation: from incomplete evidence to the hypothesis that would best account for it. Indispensable in diagnosis and strategy, and the natural home of the story that fits too well.
An everyday example
Sales fell after a competitor's launch, so the competitor caused it — while the seasonal dip, a pricing change and a tracking bug go unexamined.
What it can cost you
Locking onto the first explanation that fits; being handed the explanation by someone who benefits from it.
Warning signs
- I stopped at the first story that fit.
- The explanation came from the party it exonerates.
One thing to do
Generate at least three explanations before choosing one; ask what each would predict that the others would not, and check that.
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